Consumers of fuel may have to brace themselves up for more shocks in the next couple of days because the Institute of Energy Security (IES) is forecasting a 3 to 6 percent rise in the price of petrol and LPG and 2 percent increase in the price of diesel on the local market.
According to IES, this is attributed to the 7.64% rise in Gasoline price, 1.90% rise in Gasoil price, and the 6.05% rise in the price of LPG on the international market, plus the growing pockets of fuel shortages across the country.
Although the Cedi appreciated by 0.28% against the dollar, prices of Gasoline, Gasoil and LPG may still see an upward adjustment, barring any intervention from the government.
In the first pricing window of May 2022, the price of fuels saw increases on the local market, in response to the rise in prices on the international market.
The current national average price for Gasoline remains at GHh¢9.41 per litre, while Gasoil is pegged at Gh¢11.12 per litre.
In a statement issued by the Institute, the IES noted that, “the upward revision of Gasoline, Gasoil, and LPG prices may be significant, on the back of rising international fuel prices, and the growing pockets of fuel shortages across the country.”
Local Fuel Market Performance
In the first pricing window of May 2022, the price of fuels saw increases on the local market, in response to the rise in prices on the international market. Most Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) increased the price of Gasoil by at least 5% to reach Gh¢11 plus per litre at their pumps.
The IES Marketscan identified GB Oil, Dukes, PetroSankofa, Zen Petroleum, Goodness Oil, and Benab Oil as the OMCs with the least-priced fuel on the local market. The OMCs with the highest-priced fuel on the market were found to be Total, Engen, Semanhyia, Sel, Petrosol, Goil, Shell/Vivo, and Radiance.
Within the window under assessment, the IES Marketscan found pockets of fuel shortages at numerous OMCs retail outlets across the country, with Goil leading the pack. This is the first time Ghanaians may have to hop from one fuel outlet to another looking for Gasoline/Gasoil to buy since June 2015, after the government passed the petroleum price deregulation policy that ensures full cost recovery and efficiency in the downstream petroleum sector.
World Oil Market
On the world market, the IES states that international Benchmark Brent price stayed beyond the $100 per barrel mark in this window. The lowest prices were recorded on May 10 at $102.46 per barrel. The price averaged $107.63 per barrel, representing a 0.77% increase over the previous window’s average price of $106.81 per barrel.
Over the past two weeks, oil stocks were reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) as falling, as Wall Street reacted to persistently high inflation, which is expected to result in additional Federal Reserve policy tightening due in part to a larger market selloff.
Oil prices fell on Monday, May 9 due to a strong currency and renewed fears that China’s ongoing lockdowns would further depress demand. The market is reported as divided on whether the threat posed by China’s lockdowns outweighs the European Union’s efforts to embargo Russian oil.