Ghana’s former Vice President, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, has forecast a shift in Africa’s trade orientation as rising global tariffs — particularly from the United States — begin to impact the continent’s export-reliant economies.
Speaking at the International Democrat Union (IDU) Forum, Dr. Bawumia argued that the wave of protectionism will push African countries toward greater self-sufficiency and stronger regional trade ties.
Referring to recent U.S. tariff hikes, he noted: “The US has increased its average tariff rate from about 2.4% to 10% — the largest increase since 1943. The impact of this will not be insignificant.”
While acknowledging that Africa’s overall trade exposure to the U.S. remains limited — with just 6.5% of exports and 4.4% of imports involving the United States — Dr. Bawumia highlighted the vulnerability of specific countries on the continent.
He cited Lesotho as a case in point, explaining that the country sends roughly 50% of its exports, primarily textiles, to the U.S. under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). With the new tariff regime, he warned, those benefits are under threat.
“AGOA is essentially going to collapse under these tariffs,” he said.
As a consequence, Dr. Bawumia expects a significant shift in trade strategy across the continent, with African nations increasingly looking inward for solutions.
“What you’re going to see in Africa, as you’re seeing across the world, is more clamour for self-reliance. And you’re going to see more political space being created for intra-African trade as a way of dealing with this,” he stated.
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