Ghana could lose more than US$1.2 billion in export revenues to the United States over the next five years if a newly imposed 10% tariff remains in place, according to Emerging Markets Advisory Limited (EM Advisory).
The tariff—part of a broader set of trade reforms introduced under former U.S. President Donald Trump—is currently under legal challenge but has already started impacting Ghana’s export performance. Although the U.S. accounts for just 2.4% of Ghana’s total exports, analysts warn the cumulative effects could be significant, particularly for businesses heavily reliant on U.S. niche markets.
“If the 10 percent tariff persists, then Ghana could suffer over one billion dollars in lost export revenue to the U.S. market,” said Dr. Abudu Abdul-Ganiyu, Senior Partner at EM Advisory, during a stakeholder session with the Association of Ghana Industries (AGI). “That may not sound significant at the macro level, but for individual businesses, it’s a serious blow.”
Key Sectors Under Threat
Ghana’s exports to the U.S. had been steadily growing, reaching US$174.77 million in March 2025, just one month before the tariff took effect. EM Advisory estimates a 20% decline in demand, particularly in cocoa and mineral fuels, which together constitute more than 85% of Ghana’s exports to the U.S.
Annual export revenue losses are projected to start at US$231.74 million by April 2026, increasing to nearly US$240 million annually through to 2030. The broader economic impact could also ripple across non-exporting sectors, through changes in wages, input prices, and supply chain disruptions.
“Even exporters who don’t ship to the U.S. could feel the impact indirectly as supply chains adjust and resource allocation shifts,” Dr. Abdul-Ganiyu noted.
Business Response and Mitigation Strategies
EM Advisory is advising exporters to adopt a range of strategies to minimize the damage:
• Cost-sharing with U.S. partners to neutralize price hikes for end consumers.
• Product enhancement—improving quality or packaging to justify modest price increases.
• Market diversification, particularly toward trade partners like the UAE, Switzerland, China, and South Africa.
“Take 5 percent on your side, let your partner take the other 5 percent; that way, the price remains neutral to the end consumer,” Dr. Abdul-Ganiyu suggested.
He also urged exporters to reassess their market priorities, noting that the U.S. is only Ghana’s ninth-largest trading partner. “Can we send more to those eight bigger partners instead? That’s a critical question for industry players,” he added.
Strategic Imperatives: AfCFTA and Regional Trade
The ongoing tariff issue has reignited discussion around structural reforms to Ghana’s trade strategy. Experts at EM Advisory are calling for a renewed focus on intra-African trade, leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to build resilience and reduce over-reliance on external markets.
With a combined market of 1.4 billion people, AfCFTA presents an opportunity for local firms to scale, diversify, and attract foreign investment with reduced exposure to geopolitical risk.
“Retaliating against the U.S. would only hurt Ghana more, given our limited leverage,” EM Advisory emphasized. “Instead, the way forward is to strengthen ties with existing partners, deepen regional trade integration, and invest in upgrading local production.”
Looking Ahead
As Ghana navigates this turbulent trade environment, EM Advisory warns that inaction could deepen inequality and erode the country’s global trade standing. However, the current challenges also offer a chance to strengthen export competitiveness and economic resilience.
“This is not just a moment of loss,” the report concluded, “but a test of resilience and policy agility.”
