The Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis (CERPA) has released its independent assessment of Ghana’s 2026 Budget, concluding that while the government has maintained macroeconomic stability, the budget falls short of outlining a bold and transformative path for long-term growth, job creation and competitiveness.
In its review of the Budget Statement presented to Parliament on 13 November 2025, CERPA noted that the 2026 plan builds on gains recorded in 2025, including lower inflation, a more stable cedi and improved fiscal balances.
However, the think tank stressed that significant gaps remain in revenue mobilisation, structural reforms and policies needed to drive productivity and economic diversification.
CERPA highlighted that government expects total revenue and grants to reach GH¢268.1 billion in 2026, up by 18.3 percent from 2025, while expenditure is projected to rise by 12.2 percent to GH¢302.4 billion. The organisation cautioned that these revenue projections may be overly optimistic given Ghana’s history of shortfalls.
On fiscal consolidation, the government’s target of achieving a primary surplus of 1.5 percent of GDP and an overall deficit of 2.2 percent aligns with national commitments. But CERPA warned that implementation risks remain high, particularly in managing rising interest costs and maintaining discipline in election-year spending.
CERPA also assessed the 4.8 percent growth target for 2026, saying it will require stronger, targeted interventions in agriculture, industry and small and medium-sized enterprises. The think tank welcomed proposed debt management measures, including rebuilding the Sinking Fund and limiting non-concessional borrowing, but called for clearer timelines and enhanced transparency in reporting.
The review acknowledged the government’s continued investment in social protection programmes such as Free SHS, NHIS, LEAP and School Feeding. Infrastructure initiatives under the Big Push Programme and the 24-Hour Economy are expected to support job creation if effectively implemented.
CERPA praised the budget for reforms aimed at modernising revenue systems, improving monetary policy coordination and emphasising digital taxation. It also welcomed the continued commitment to fiscal responsibility under the revised Public Financial Management Act.
However, the think tank flagged several weaknesses, including potential revenue overestimation, pressures from domestic borrowing that could crowd out private investment, limited productivity-focused reforms in agriculture and manufacturing, and fragmented poverty reduction strategies lacking clear impact measures.
In its overall conclusion, CERPA stated that while the 2026 Budget keeps Ghana on a stabilisation path, it does not fully articulate a transformative agenda that addresses deep structural constraints. The organisation urged government to enhance implementation credibility, invest more in growth sectors, diversify exports and pursue reforms that support job creation and long-term resilience.
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