Voting has begun in Russia’s presidential election, which is all but certain to hand Vladimir Putin another six years in power.
Ballots will be cast over three days, even though the result is not in doubt as he has no credible opponent.
Polling stations opened in the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia’s easternmost region, at 08:00 local time on Friday (20:00 GMT on Thursday) and will finally close in the westernmost Kaliningrad exclave at 20:00 on Sunday.
At a grand military awards ceremony last December, Vladimir Putin, 71, told the Russian public he would stand for the presidency for a fifth time.
At the solemn event, held in one of the Kremlin’s most opulent halls, Russia’s leader of 24 years had just handed out top honours to soldiers who had taken part in Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.
He was chatting with a small group of participants when the commander of a pro-Russian unit in Ukraine’s occupied Donetsk region approached him.
“We need you, Russia needs you!” declared Lt-Col Artyom Zhoga, asking him to run as a candidate in Russia’s forthcoming presidential election. Everyone voiced their support.
Vladimir Putin nodded: “Now is the time for making decisions. I will be running for the post of president of the Russian Federation.”
His spokesman Dmitry Peskov later described the decision to run as “absolutely spontaneous”. But the Kremlin rarely leaves its choreography to chance.
Instead, straight away its well-oiled media machine swung into action.
On all state channels, 71-year-old President Putin was promoted as a national leader who stood head and shoulders above potential rivals.
“Support for the president transcends party support alone,” reported one correspondent on state TV news later that week. “Vladimir Putin is the people’s candidate!” He has been in Russia longer than any ruler since Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.
He has been president since 2000, apart from four years as prime minister because of a two-term limit imposed by the Russian constitution.
He has since changed the rules to give himself a clean slate to run again in 2024 by “switching back to zero” in his previous terms. That means he could also run for another six-year term in 2030, when he will turn 78.
During his time in office, Vladimir Putin has methodically tightened his grip on power, so no real threat to his rule exists any longer. His most outspoken critics are either dead, in jail or exile.
Yet the Kremlin remains determined to give a semblance of legitimacy to Russia’s electoral process.
Although there can be no doubt about the ultimate election result, the authorities seem to care greatly about a high turnout, which will be presented as evidence of his popular mandate.
Turnout at the last election in 2018 was officially 68%, but international observers reported several cases of ballot-stuffing. This year, voting will be easier than ever before, ending on Sunday.
In the parts of occupied Ukraine that Russia calls its “new regions”, polls opened 10 days before election day, and social media has been awash with ads urging people to go vote. When they do, they will be faced with a choice – or rather a semblance of one.
Joining Russia’s leader on the ballot will be Nikolai Kharitonov, representing the Communist Party, which has remained Russia’s second most popular party, for more than 30 years since the fall of the Soviet Union. It draws its support from a small but loyal base of those nostalgic for their Soviet past.
Another hopeful – local Moscow councillor Boris Nadezhdin – announced his candidacy last year, generating a rare moment of optimism for opposition-minded voters.
He was a frequent guest on talk shows on state TV and had been relatively critical of Moscow’s war in Ukraine. But in a country where many have been jailed for speaking out against the war, he would never make the ballot paper.
Thousands queued up to offer signatures in his support, and perhaps spooked by the crowds, Russia’s election authorities rejected his bid, claiming that more than 15% of his collected signatures were flawed.
Mr Nadezhdin’s exclusion from the race ended any possibility of a surprise. Televised debates have taken place in the run-up to the vote, without Vladimir Putin taking part.
Instead, TV coverage has focused on his regular choreographed meetings with factory workers, soldiers and students while his state-of-the-nation address at the end of February was widely seen as a pre-election pitch aimed at burnishing his credentials as a man of the people.
Although some of the speech was devoted to the war in Ukraine, it was largely dedicated to domestic issues. Perhaps a tacit acknowledgement that many Russians are more concerned by problems closer to home than Russia’s supposed successes on the battlefield or its endless strife with the West.
Russia’s leader proposed a raft of social measures, including a modernised tax system that was “fairer” for Russian families and incentives aimed at increasing Russia’s dwindling birth rate.
The speech provided a glimpse into the many issues Russia is facing, including poverty affecting families and faltering education, infrastructure and healthcare.
For a man who has spent 20 years as president, Vladimir Putin has proven unable to solve many of these issues. Instead, up to 40% of Russia’s budget in 2024 is being spent on military and national security.
Many of his measures require considerable cash injections or investment, and Russia has a serious corruption problem that means funds often do not reach their intended destinations.
But that will hardly matter in an election that most international observers expect will be neither free nor fair.
In the absence of genuine enthusiasm for the vote, campaign videos from the poll’s also-rans have created a social media buzz, coming across as near-caricatures.
Communist hopeful Nikolai Kharitonov is portrayed angrily clenching his fist while listening to the latest news from volatile commodity markets. “We’ve toyed with capitalism and that’s enough!” he declares, marching across Red Square to take up residence in the Kremlin after his imagined election victory. Of course, nothing of the sort will happen.
In another video, nationalist LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky is shown trying out the office of his late predecessor Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who led the party for 30 years until his death two years ago.
When an aide tries to switch name plates on the desk, Mr Slutsky tells her forcefully: “No, leave it there!”
But Ms Navalnaya herself has said that the purpose of the campaign is mostly to allow supporters to silently identify one another at the polling station, rather than to wield any real change.
On 18 March, Russians will doubtless wake up to find President Putin has been re-elected. When he appears at a victory rally in Moscow, he may even shed a tear – as he did after the 2012 presidential election – and profusely thank voters for the trust they have placed in him.
For the next six years, the illusion of democracy is all but guaranteed to continue.
